WHAT HAPPENED
On September 16–17, 2026, VnExpress International published excerpts from the report "From Tailwinds to Trade-Offs: Southeast Asia Outlook 2026–2035," prepared by Bain & Company together with DBS Bank and consulting firm Vriens & Partners. The main thesis: the six largest economies of Southeast Asia (SEA-6 — Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam) will grow on average by 4.8% in real terms annually over the 2026–2035 horizon. Within this group, Vietnam is named the fastest-growing economy.
An important detail: this is a ten-year averaged scenario, not a short-term forecast. And these are fundamentally different numbers. The World Bank back in March 2025 projected Vietnam's growth at 6.8% for 2025 and 6.5% for 2026, while UOB in 2026 raised its annual estimate to 8.5% — as reported by VNA / Vietnam Net. In other words, the country is growing faster than the regional average, and the regional average is being pulled up precisely by Vietnam and Indonesia.
The forecast is already backed by actual data. According to Vietnam's General Statistics Office (GSO), the country's total trade turnover in 2025 reached $930.05 billion: exports grew 17.0% year-on-year, imports — 19.4%. Exports from the foreign-invested sector totaled $367.09 billion, or 77.3% of all exports. This is not an "assembly country" in the old sense, but an industrial hub with a high concentration of external players.
WHAT THIS MEANS FOR RUSSIAN E-COMMERCE
For a Russian seller, this forecast is not abstract macroeconomics but three operational consequences: cost of entry, supplier availability, and logistics route.
First — supply. Vietnam's manufacturing base is growing not only in electronics. According to trade analytics from Volza, the top-3 export categories in 2025 include electrical machinery and electronics, mechanical equipment, and textiles with apparel. These are exactly the categories where Russian e-commerce buys in bulk: supplements and cosmetics are a separate story, but textiles, small electronics, accessories, and home goods form the base assortment of marketplaces. When a country's industrial output grows for a decade straight, suppliers become more accommodating: factories appear that are ready to work with small batches and private labels, not just with 20-ton containers.
Second — the scale effect from anchor investors. Samsung in Vietnam reported combined revenue of its local divisions at around $35.2 billion for the first half of 2026 — growth of roughly 21% year-on-year, according to VnExpress. Samsung's registered investment in Vietnam exceeded $24 billion by the end of 2025, with employment of around 80,000–85,000 people. Such an anchor pulls the entire chain along: packaging, logistics, component suppliers, trained workforce. For a Russian brand, this means that Vietnamese suppliers increasingly know how to work to international quality and documentation standards, not just "neighborly" arrangements.
Third — logistics. Vietnam's maritime hubs have reached a new level: according to industry summaries for 2025, the country's port container throughput exceeded 34 million TEU, Cai Mep–Thi Vai handled about 6.3 million TEU by mother vessels over 10–11 months of 2025, and Hai Phong exceeded 8.2 million TEU — data from Vantage Logistics. Individual Cai Mep terminals (CMIT, TCIT) crossed the 2 million TEU mark — Saigon Newport. Direct services without transshipment in third countries mean more predictable transit and lower risk of getting "stuck" at a transshipment hub.
Fourth — the route to Russia. FESCO offers intermodal container services Vietnam–Vladivostok, including the Vladivostok — HCMC — Haiphong line with onward shipment across Russia by rail and road (FESCO). This is an alternative to the classic route via Suez and European hubs, and it directly affects the time and cost of delivery to a marketplace warehouse.
VIETSMART EXPERT COMMENTARY
I live and work in Ho Chi Minh City, and I see this forecast not in a report but in operations. Over the past months, Russian sellers have been coming to us more and more often with the same request: "Find a Vietnamese factory instead of a Chinese one, but so the price doesn't go up." And almost all of them make the same mistake — comparing only the unit price. In practice, a Vietnamese supplier may quote 8–12% higher than a Chinese one, but thanks to a shorter leg to port, lower MOQ, and willingness to work with private labels, the final SKU cost often ends up lower. You need to calculate landed cost, not FOB.
The second typical mistake is entering textiles or electronics "blind," without checking certificates. Vietnam is export-oriented, but not all factories are approved for markets with strict regulation. If you plan to sell cosmetics or supplements under your own brand, a CFS certificate and product registration are not a formality but a condition of entry. And here Vietnamese partners are usually stronger than Chinese ones: they have more experience working with EVFTA, the EU–Vietnam agreement in force since August 1, 2020, which gradually removes tariffs (details on the EU Council website). This same documentation experience carries over to Russian supplies.
CONCLUSIONS AND WHAT TO DO
- Recalculate landed cost for 2–3 SKUs from Vietnam. Take your current Chinese purchase and request from a Vietnamese supplier the FOB price, freight rate to Vladivostok or Ho Chi Minh City, transit time, and MOQ. Compare the full cost to the marketplace warehouse, not the price per unit.
- Request certificates for your category from the supplier. For textiles — OEKO-TEX or equivalent; for cosmetics and supplements — CFS and registration documents. Check the number and expiration date, not just the presence of a PDF.
- Test the Vietnam–Vladivostok route via FESCO or a similar operator. Compare time and cost with your current route. For shipments up to 5 tons, the intermodal option often wins on predictability.
- Plan for two locomotive categories in 2026–2027: textiles and small electronics. According to Volza, these are Vietnam's top-3 exports, meaning maximum factory competition and the best terms for small batches.
- Don't wait for the "perfect" supplier. Start with a trial batch of 300–500 units through a Vietnamese intermediary with quality inspection, and only then go direct to the factory. The cost of a bad entry is higher than overpaying an intermediary at the start.
Source: VnExpress International — Business, September 17, 2026