WHAT HAPPENED
Vietnamese e-commerce is no longer a one-platform story. According to Vietnam.vn data from October 14, 2026, the gap between TikTok Shop and Shopee in gross merchandise value (GMV) has narrowed to just over 4 trillion dong — roughly $160 million at the current exchange rate. Two years ago, such a lag would have looked like a comfortable lead for the frontrunner; today, it's the distance of one or two quarters of aggressive growth.
The picture is confirmed by independent sources, though their estimates vary. Statista's report Market share of TikTok Shop in Vietnam notes that already in Q1 2026, TikTok Shop surpassed Shopee in market share among Vietnam's e-commerce platforms for the first time. Digital in Asia's review SEA E-Commerce & Social Commerce 2026 estimates TikTok Shop's share at 41% by the end of 2025. Meanwhile, the conservative sample from Vietnam Market Insights in its Vietnam E-Commerce Deep Dive Report 2026 gives a much more modest 24.1% versus Shopee's 67.2%.
The discrepancy is no accident: some analysts count GMV, others count active buyers, and still others count order volume. But the direction of movement is the same across all of them. Euromonitor's report Retail E-Commerce in Vietnam (May 2026) explicitly calls Shopee and TikTok Shop a duopoly controlling the vast majority of the market, and notes Shopee's declining share in 2025–2026. According to MAS/Metric (January 2026), the combined GMV of the four largest platforms — Shopee, Lazada, Tiki, and TikTok Shop — reached about 429.7 trillion dong (roughly $16.4 billion) in 2025, up about 34.8% year-on-year. According to SHS, in Q1 2026 alone, the combined sales of these four retailers hit 148.6 trillion dong, up 46.6% year-on-year.
WHAT THIS MEANS
For a Russian entrepreneur looking at Southeast Asia as the next market after Ozon and Wildberries, a change in leadership isn't abstract business news — it's a direct shift in the economics of market entry. The logic is simple: when a platform grows faster than the market, it subsidizes traffic and promotions to steal share from its competitor. That's a window of opportunity for a new seller — but it also means the rules of the game are rewritten every six months.
The second layer is commissions. In 2025–2026, both platforms changed their fee structures. Local summaries for Q2 2026 point to TikTok Shop's effective rate rising to about 12.5% base commission in certain categories, while Shopee introduced new technology and payment fees. For goods with a 25–30% margin — typical for Russian exports in the home, beauty, and children's goods categories — a 3–4 percentage point difference in commission is the difference between a profitable channel and one that breaks even.
The third layer is regulatory. On December 10, 2025, Vietnam passed the Law on E-Commerce (Luật số 122/2025/QH15), which took effect on July 1, 2026. According to the government portal Chinhphu.vn, the law also applies to foreign organizations, including obligations for intermediary platforms regarding reporting and content removal. The Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) in July 2026 published an implementation plan for the law and Decree 248/2026/ND-CP, detailing requirements for sellers and platforms. For a Russian brand, this means platform choice is now not just a marketing decision but a compliance one.
The fourth layer is the nature of TikTok Shop itself. It's not a classic marketplace but social commerce, where selling is embedded in content. A Russian seller accustomed to a product listing and search bidding loses out here: you need your own content pipeline, local creators, and live streaming in Vietnamese. It's a different operational profile, and underestimating this is the most expensive mistake when entering the market.
VIETSMART EXPERT COMMENTARY
I see this dynamic in operations in Ho Chi Minh City almost daily. Over the past few months, several Russian teams from the cosmetics and home goods categories have come to us, and they all make the same typical mistake: they choose a platform based on last year's data — those very conservative reports where Shopee still holds two-thirds of the market. In reality, on the warehouse and logistics side, the picture is different: TikTok Shop captures impulse categories and younger audiences, while Shopee remains stronger in repeat purchases and categories with a long consideration cycle. At VietSmart, we don't recommend clients choose a single platform — we build entry through a test period on both, with different SKU sets, and see where the unit economics converge after all fees.
CONCLUSIONS AND WHAT TO DO
- Don't choose a platform based on old reports. Request current commission terms directly from Shopee and TikTok Shop Vietnam account managers for Q3–Q4 2026 and recalculate margins for your category — rates changed in 2025–2026 and continue to change.
- Check your product's compliance with the Law on E-Commerce 122/2025/QH15. Confirm with a local partner or lawyer whether you fall under the reporting and labeling requirements that took effect on July 1, 2026, and which MOIT decrees (including 248/2026/ND-CP) apply to you.
- Budget for local content, not just advertising. TikTok Shop requires a stream of videos and live streams in Vietnamese with local creators — without this, the platform won't give you traffic, no matter how much you pay for promotion.
- Test both platforms in parallel on different SKUs. Give Shopee products with repeat purchases and complex choices, and TikTok Shop impulse and visual categories, then after 60–90 days compare actual profitability, not turnover.
- Calculate logistics and returns before launch. The 4 trillion dong gap between the leaders means both platforms will aggressively pressure sellers on timelines and quality — factor into your model the cost of a local fulfillment partner in Vietnam, not direct shipping from Russia.
Source: Vietnam.vn dated October 14, 2026