WHAT HAPPENED
Vietnam has enshrined a national goal: by 2030, e-commerce should account for 20% of the country's total retail sales. This is set out in the Master Plan for National Electronic Commerce Development 2026–2030 — Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT) Decision No. 1568/QĐ-BCT, as reported by Việt Nam News. Beyond the retail share, the document sets targets: annual online sales growth of 20–30%, raising the share of adults shopping online to 70%, and bringing 60% of small and medium-sized enterprises onto e-commerce platforms.
The figures in different documents diverge slightly, and that's important to understand. The retail market development strategy approved by Prime Minister's Decision No. 2326/QĐ-TTg of October 21, 2025, formulates the goal more softly — 15–20% by 2030 with annual growth of 15–20% (published by LuatVietnam). In other words, the state sets a range rather than one hard number — but the direction of travel is unambiguous.
The regulatory framework has been put in place too: the new Law on E-Commerce was passed by the National Assembly in December 2025 and took effect on July 1, 2026 (Báo Chính Phủ). It governs platform obligations, representation of foreign players, and digital transaction accounting. In parallel, the targets are being replicated at the provincial level — for example, Bac Ninh has approved its own 2026–2030 plan with the same 20% online retail share and 70% online shoppers (Bac Ninh provincial portal).
WHAT THIS MEANS FOR RUSSIAN E-COM
When a government sets a goal of 20% of retail going online, it isn't just stimulating sales. It's building infrastructure: warehouses, fulfillment centers, sorting hubs, payment gateways, digital accounting systems. It is this infrastructure — not just cheap labor — that makes a country suitable for sourcing and shipping goods under your own brand. According to an estimate cited in a publication by the Vietnam Ministry of Transport portal, the country's e-commerce market was valued at roughly $31 billion by 2025, growing about 25.5% year on year. The regional e-Conomy SEA 2025 report by Google, Temasek and Bain (Temasek) records an acceleration of Southeast Asia's digital economy as a whole, and Vietnam is one of the fastest-growing markets here.
For a Russian entrepreneur, this means a tectonic shift in supply chains. The classic scheme of "buy in Guangzhou, ship through Vladivostok" has been hitting three walls in recent years: rising logistics costs, tightening payment restrictions, and growing competition for the same flow of goods. Vietnam offers an alternative: its own production capacity (textiles, footwear, furniture, electronics, packaging), direct access to ASEAN and European markets through free trade agreements, and — critically — emerging logistics built for online retail, not just container shipments.
Competition will shift too. While some are still arguing about exchange rates and tariffs on the China route, others are already testing Vietnamese fulfillment operators and local marketplaces. The Law on E-Commerce, which took effect on July 1, 2026, adds mandatory digital transaction accounting and requirements for foreign platform representation — meaning "gray" schemes with unaccounted sales will gradually be squeezed out. For those operating above board, this is mostly a plus: the rules become more transparent, and therefore more predictable.
Production is a separate layer. Vietnam long ago ceased to be just an "assembly shop" for China. Local factories in Binh Duong, Dong Nai and Ho Chi Minh City are ready to produce under private label, but they require minimum volumes and verified certificates. This is precisely where Russian brands have a window: while large international chains are restructuring their Asian supply chains, the mid-sized Russian seller can carve out a niche of direct contracts with Vietnamese manufacturers — without three layers of intermediaries.
VIETSMART EXPERT COMMENTARY
I regularly visit warehouses and partner offices in Ho Chi Minh City and see the same picture: Russian entrepreneurs arrive asking "find us a cheaper factory" and leave understanding that cheaper isn't the main thing. The main thing is predictability of shipment. Vietnamese fulfillment operators are currently not fully loaded, and this is a historic window: in two or three years, when the Master Plan 2026–2030 targets start being met, there will be less free capacity for external brands. The most common mistake I see is trying to work with Vietnam using the China template: one supplier, one channel, one logistics route. It doesn't work that way here. You need at least two suppliers in different provinces and one local fulfillment partner that receives the goods, labels them and ships them directly to Russia or to third countries.
CONCLUSIONS AND WHAT TO DO
The goal of 20% online retail by 2030 is not an abstract indicator but a signal of where public and private investment will flow in the coming years. For a Russian entrepreneur, it's a prompt to revisit the supply map. Here are concrete steps worth taking in the coming months.
- Request a CFS (Certificate of Free Sale) from your current or potential Vietnamese suppliers and verify its number in the Vietnamese Ministry of Health registry. Without this document, goods won't clear customs in Russia or the EAEU, and no savings on procurement will compensate for that.
- Audit at least two fulfillment operators in Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi. Look not at the storage rate but at order processing speed, integration with Russian marketplaces, and willingness to work with your labeling.
- Test a pilot batch of 200–500 units through a Vietnamese private-label manufacturer. It's cheaper than it seems and gives you real data on lead times, quality and cost — instead of someone else's presentations.
- Factor digital transaction accounting costs into your unit economics. The Law on E-Commerce of July 1, 2026 requires transparent operations, and "gray" schemes with unaccounted sales will be squeezed out — plan a legal model in advance.
- Track provincial regional plans (Bac Ninh, Binh Duong, Dong Nai). They replicate the 20% online retail targets, which means local exporter support programs and logistics subsidies are appearing — you can use them before competitors do.
Vietnam is now at the point where a government goal is turning into real infrastructure. A Russian brand doesn't have to wait until 2030 to take advantage of this — the window is open now, but it won't stay open for long.
Source: Vietnam.vn dated October 3, 2026