Vietnam Promises Stable Taxes: How This Changes Sourcing for Russian Sellers

On October 11, 2026, VnExpress International published a piece stating that a stable, transparent, and predictable tax policy is becoming a decisive factor for foreign investors in Vietnam when deciding to expand production and make long-term commitments. Officials are saying it outright: without predictability in the tax environment, it will be impossible to retain existing factories and attract new ones.

The formal backdrop for the statement was the government's Resolution 280/NQ-CP dated September 22, 2026 — an action plan for implementing Resolution 10-NQ/TW. Separately, publications mention Báo Chính phủ from September 28, 2026, where transparent tax policy is called the "new foundation" for improving FDI quality.

Context: according to VnExpress and KPMG Vietnam, foreign direct investment inflows into Vietnam in 2025 reached a five-year high, and for 2026 the government has set the task of not losing momentum. That is why the rhetoric has shifted from "we will give incentives" to "we will give predictability."

What This Means

For a Russian e-commerce entrepreneur sourcing Vietnamese goods (clothing, footwear, furniture, electronics, coffee, cosmetics), tax stability in Vietnam is not abstract macroeconomics — it is three concrete things in unit economics.

First: the cost of entry to marketplaces. On January 1, 2026, amendments to the VAT Law took effect — Amended VAT Law 2025 — and on June 30, 2026, Decree 252/2026/NĐ-CP was adopted, clarifying tax administration. The key point: e-commerce platforms are now required to withhold, declare, and pay VAT and corporate income tax on behalf of foreign suppliers. If the platform cannot classify a transaction, according to Baker McKenzie (January 2026), the highest statutory rate applies.

Second: procurement cost. A factory whose tax burden changes every quarter builds risk into its price. A factory that knows the rate over a 3–5 year horizon can offer a fixed price for a year. For a seller, the difference is the difference between an 18% margin and a 9% margin on the same SKU.

Third: long-term contracts. If a Vietnamese supplier is confident in the tax regime, it is ready to sign an annual agreement with fixed price and volume. If not, it shifts currency and tax risk into the price, and the Russian seller pays for someone else's uncertainty.

Expert Commentary

In our operations in Ho Chi Minh City, I see this every week: when a supplier says "the price can change at any moment," in 80% of cases the reason is not raw materials but the fact that they do not understand their tax burden for the next quarter. Policy stability for them is the ability to name a price and hold it.

Dmitrii Vasenin Founder, VietSmart

Separately, it is worth looking at Decree 324/2025/NĐ-CP on tax incentives for the International Financial Center: a 10% corporate income tax rate for 30 years, up to 4 years of exemption, and a 50% reduction for the next 9 years for priority projects (analysis — KPMG Vietnam, January 2026). This is a signal: Vietnam is ready to compete for capital not with one-off discounts but with long-term rules.

But there is also a contradiction that is important not to swallow. Simultaneously with statements about "stability," Vietnam adopted the Amended VAT Law 2025, Decree 181/2025 on VAT, and Decree 252/2026 on administration. That is, the rules have become stricter and more complex. "Stability" here does not mean "nothing changes" but "changes on a clear schedule and not retroactively." For a Russian seller, this is a fundamentally different story: planning is possible, but supplier documents must be checked more rigorously.

VietSmart Expert Commentary

If I were a Russian entrepreneur, I would do three things right now. First: request written confirmation of tax status from key Vietnamese suppliers — how they are registered, whether they pay VAT, whether they work through a platform or directly. This is not bureaucracy: since 2026, the platform itself withholds tax, and if a supplier cannot classify a transaction, you as the buyer indirectly pay at the maximum rate.

Second: convert at least one contract from a "price per batch" mode to a "fixed annual price" mode. It is precisely the predictability of Vietnam's tax environment that is the argument you can use to push for fixation in negotiations. Third: diversify suppliers not by country but by tax profile — some through official factories with direct registration, some through platforms with withholding. Then a change in rules in one channel will not collapse your entire product line.

Expert Commentary

Tax policy stability in Vietnam is not news for investors; it is a negotiation tool for the seller. Whoever is first to ask for a fixed price for a year will capture the margin that others will give away on currency and tax swings.

Dmitrii Vasenin Founder, VietSmart

Conclusions and What to Do

• Request written confirmation of tax status from every Vietnamese supplier: tax registration number, VAT regime, whether they work through a platform or directly. Without this, you do not know the real cost.
• Convert at least one key contract to an annual price fixation format, using the argument of tax environment predictability (Resolution 280/NQ-CP, September 2026).
• Check whether your intermediary platform withholds VAT and corporate income tax under Decree 252/2026 — if not, the risk of the maximum rate falls on the chain.
• Split purchases by tax profile: direct factories, platforms with withholding, agents. This reduces dependence on a single channel.
• Build into your 2027 unit economics a scenario of a 1–2 point VAT rate change: even under a "stable" policy, Vietnam changes rules on a schedule, not at will.

Source: VnExpress International — Business dated October 11, 2026